Market News & Headlines >> Only Minor Changes Expected in U.S. Grain, Soy Stocks Estimates

USDA is expected to make only minor adjustments in its 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat in its March Supply/Demand report due out on Friday morning.

On average, USDA is expected to lower the U.S. corn carryout slightly. Trade estimates of 2023/24 U.S. corn ending stocks average about 2.155 billion bushels, down 17 million from USDA’s February estimate in a range from 2.075-2.250 billion bushels, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 26 analysts.

There are some expectations USDA could raise its forecast for 2023/24 U.S. corn exports. Trade estimates of corn exports average about 2.105 billion bushels, compared with USDA’s February projection of 2.100 billion bushels. However, even though corn exports are running well ahead of last year’s slow pace, they are running behind the seasonal pace needed to meet USDA’s current 2023/24 forecast.

Pre-report expectations for the 2023/24 soybean carryout average about 319 million bushels, just 4 million bushels above USDA’s February estimate, in a range from 293-355 million bushels.

USDA could potentially lower its forecast for 2023/24 U.S. soybean exports again, based on the current pace of sales and shipments and low Brazilian export prices. Trade estimates of U.S. soybean exports average 1.712 billion bushels, 8 million below USDA’s February projection.

Pre-report estimates of the 2023/24 U.S. wheat carryout about 658 million bushels, versus USDA’s February forecast of 658 million bushels, in a range from 640-682 million.  Trade estimates of U.S. wheat exports average about 724 million bushels, 1 million below USDA’s February projection.