Market News & Headlines >> USDA Expected to Cut Crop Estimates

The grain trade is expecting USDA to lower its estimates of U.S. corn and soybean production and yields in Friday morning’s September Crop Production report.

Trade estimates of U.S. corn production average 13.493 billion bushels in a range from 13.050-13.870 billion compared with USDA’s August estimate of 13.686 billion bushels, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of 22 analysts. Pre-report expectations for the U.S. average corn yield average 166.6 bushels for acre in a range from 161.0-170.5 bushels compared with USDA’s August forecast of 168.8 bushels.

Even if USDA were to lower its corn yield forecast by 2.2 bushels per acre, as suggested by the average of trade estimates, it would still be the second highest on record behind last year’s 171.0 bushels.

Pre-report expectations of U.S. soybean production average 3.838 million bushels in a range from 3.590-3.935 billion against USDA’s August forecast of 3.916 billion bushels. Trade estimates of the U.S. average soybean yield average 46.0 bushels per acre in a range from 43.0-47.1 bushels versus USDA’s August estimate of 46.9 bushels.

Even if USDA were to lower its corn yield forecast by 0.9 bushels per acre, as suggested by the average of trade estimates, it would still be the second highest on record behind last year’s 47.8 bushels.