Market News & Headlines >> USDA Set to Release 2024/25 Projections

USDA on Thursday will issue updated 2024/25 supply/demand projections for all commodities at its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum and will publish them on its Outlook Forum website at 6:00 a.m. CT.

The agency offered its first projections for the upcoming marketing year back in November based on market and economic conditions as of October as part of its long-term baseline projections designed for budget purposes.

Traders on Thursday should focus primarily on USDA’s 2024 acreage and crop production projections for major crops and its 2024/25 ending stocks projections for those crops.

Ahead of the Outlook Forum, trade estimates of 2024 U.S. corn plantings average 91.6 million acres compared with the 2023 plantings of 94.6 million acres, according to a survey of 21 analysts by  Bloomberg News. Trade estimates of 2024 corn production average 15.085 billion bushels versus the 2023 crop of 15.34 billion and expectations for 2024/25 U.S. corn ending stocks average 2.493 billion bushels, up from the current forecast for a 2023/24 carryout of 2.172 billion bushels.

Trade expectations for 2024 U.S. soybean plantings average 86.7 million acres compared with last year’s plantings of 83.6 million, with estimates of 2024 U.S. soybean production averaging 4.427 million bushels compared with the 2023 crop of 4.165 billion. Expectations for 2024/25 U.S. soybean ending stocks average 420 million bushels, up from the current 2023/24 carryout forecast of 315 million.

On average, USDA is expected to peg 2024 U.S. all-wheat seedings at 47.4 million acres, down from the 2023 seedings of 49.6 million acres, with expectations for 2024 U.S. wheat production averaging 1.892 billion bushels up from the 2023 production of 1.812 billion. Expectations for 2024/25 U.S. wheat ending stocks average 720 million bushels compared with the current 2023/24 carryout forecast of 658 million.

On average, USDA is expected to peg 2024 U.S. cotton seedings at 10.7 million acres, up from the 10.2 million seeded in 2023, with expectations for 2024 U.S. cotton production averaging 15.22 million bales up from the 2023 production of 12.43 million. Expectations for 2024/25 U.S. cotton ending stocks average 3.5 million bales up from the current 2023/24 carryout forecast of 2.8 million.