Market News & Headlines >> USDA Set to Release 2024/25 Supply/Demand Forecasts

Friday’s May Supply/Demand report from USDA is not expected to show significant changes in 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks for corn, soybeans or wheat, but will be closely watched by the grain trade as it will contain the agency’s first monthly forecasts for the 2024/25 marketing years.

In the corn and soybean markets, traders will be focusing mainly on USDA’s updated demand forecasts for 2024/25 as its estimates of 2024 corn and soybean production should be based on the March planting intentions numbers and weather-adjusted trendline yields. USDA’s crop estimates should be lower than the forecasts it made at its annual Outlook Forum in February, though, since corn and soybean planting intentions both came in below USDA’s February projections.

In contrast, USDA’s 2024/25 wheat carryout forecast will be heavily dependent on USDA’s first survey estimate of 2024 U.S. winter wheat production, which is also due out on Friday morning. Larger-than-expected planting intentions for “other” spring wheat and durum will also impact the supply side of USDA’s balance sheet.

Pre-report trade expectations for the 2024/25 U.S. corn carryout average 2.282 billion bushels in a range from 2.032-2.564 billion bushels compared with USDA’s February Outlook Conference estimate of 2.532 billion bushels, according to a Bloomberg News survey.  Expectations for the  2023/24 carryout average 2.094 billion bushels in a range from 1.970-2.172 billion compared with USDA’s April estimate of 2.122 billion.

Trade estimates of the 2024/25 U.S. soybean carryout average 439 million bushels in a range from 315-552 million compared with USDA’s February Outlook Forum estimate of 435 million bushels. Expectations for the 2023/24 soybean carryout average 341 million bushels, just one million above USDA’s April forecast.

Trade expectations for the 2024/25 U.S. wheat carryout average roughly 782 million bushels in a range from 705-879 million bushels compared with USDA’s February Outlook Forum estimate of 769 million bushels.  Pre-report expectations for the 2023/24 wheat carryout average 695 million bushels, 3 million below USDA’s April estimate in a range from 658-713 million.