Market News & Headlines >> Argentine Crops Seen Lower; Brazil soy higher
The U.S. grain/soybean trade sees Argentina’s corn and soybean crops falling short of USDA’s current estimates due to hot, dry conditions across much of that country’s growing belt. Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean crop is expected exceed USDA’s forecast, but Brazilian corn production is seen falling short of USDA’s current forecast.
Trade estimates of Argentina’s corn crop ahead of Wednesday’s USDA supply/demand estimate average 40.5 million metric tons in a range from 39.0-42.0 million tons, compared with USDA’s January forecast of 42.0 million tons, according to a survey of 22 analysts by Bloomberg news. Estimates of Argentina’s soybean production average 53.8 million tons in a range from 51.0-56.0 million, compared with USDA’s January estimate of 56 million.
Pre-report estimates of Brazil’s soybean crop average 111.5 million tons in a range from 110-114 million compared with USDA’s January estimate of 110 million and the official Brazilian estimate of 110.4 million tons. Estimates of Brazil’s total 2017/18 corn crop average 93.3 million tons in a range from 87.1-95.0 million compared with USDA’s January estimate of 95.0 million.
The U.S. agricultural attaché in Brasilia in a report dated Feb. 1, and released Monday afternoon pegged Brazil’s corn crop at only 92.0 million metric tons as a result of lower planted area and a return to normal yields from last year’s historically high yields. However, planting of Brazil’s winter or safrinha corn crop, which now accounts for about two-thirds of total production is still in the early stages, so there is still a great deal of uncertainty about planted area and yields.
CONAB, the supply department of Brazil’s agriculture ministry is due to release its latest estimates of soybean production and summer corn production early on Wednesday morning, ahead of USDA’s monthly supply/demand report, which is due out at 11:00 a.m. CT.