Market News & Headlines >> Brazil Corn Crop Estimates Higher
Despite significant second-crop corn planting delays in Brazil’s center-south growing region, many analysts are now anticipating Brazil’s total 2022/23 corn crop will exceed USDA’s current forecast of 125 million metric tons thanks to favorable growing conditions in the top second-crop corn state of Mato Grosso.
Estimates of Brazil's production from 12 analysts avg. 126.63 million metric tons in a range from 123.03-130.6 million tons according to a Reuters News Service survey. Those results include the estimate from USDA and the estimate of 124.67 MMT from CONAB, the supply department of Brazil’s agriculture ministry, so the avg. of private trade estimates is actually a bit higher.
Brazil’s second or safrinha corn crop makes up about 75% of its total production and provides most of its exports. A large Brazilian crop will provide stiff competition for U.S. corn late in 2022/23 and early in 2023/24, although production losses in Argentina are expected to significantly curtail that country’s exports.
Much of the safrinha corn crop in Brazil’s center-south region will be planted outside the ideal planting weather due to persistent wet weather that has limited fieldwork. Planting progress in Brazil's center-south state of Mato Grosso do Sul as of Sunday was at only 43% compared with 86% last year and in the center-south state of Parana, progress was at 40% versus 69% last year, according to CONAB. Nationwide, Brazilian producers had planted 72.5% of their safrinha corn crop, up from 63.6% a week earlier, but behind last year's pace of 87.4%, CONAB said.