Market News & Headlines >> Brazil Trims Crop Estimates

CONAB, the supply department of Brazil’s agriculture ministry, on Thursday cut its 2020/21 soybean crop estimate marginally and lowered its corn production forecast, citing “climactic problems” in southern Brazil. 

CONAB pegged soybean production at 134.45 million metric tons (MMT), down 500,000 tons from its November estimate and cut its estimate of Brazil’s total corn production by 2.3 MMT to 102.59 MMT due to lower expected first-crop production. The agency cut first-crop corn production by 8.7% to 24.2 MMT. 

CONAB lowered its soybean planted area and yield estimates marginally, but still sees plantings up 3.3% over last year. CONAB’s soybean crop estimate is still 1.45 MMT above USDA’s forecast and above most trade estimates. 

The CONAB corn production estimate is more than 7.5 MMT below USDA’s forecast of 110.00 MMT, but CONAB won’t issue a new estimate of second-crop planted area until February and is using last year’s acreage estimate. Brazil’s second corn crop now accounts for the majority of its production and exports, and is normally planted after soybeans. With soybean area up and corn prices at record high levels, second-crop corn plantings will likely rise if weather cooperates.