Market News & Headlines >> Brock Consultant Katie Hancock's Blog: Fear After the Report? Not If You Focus the Right Way

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Insights from Brock Associates Consultant Katie Hancock

The August USDA crop report on the 12th was not friendly to grain producers looking for good news and higher prices. Those with timely sales ahead of the report are in a comfortable position. Still, even those with just a small portion of unsold grain are concerned—any percentage unsold during a selloff like Wednesday would still be considered a loss.  As my phone rang off the hook, I told everyone not to panic—including myself. 

So where to go from here? It’s not necessarily a bear market when prices take a dive after a report. I can’t say it’s a good sign for those looking to catch up on sales, but I can say it’s time to make a plan. I find a drastic move in the market will shake up emotions to the point decision making is impaired, so it’s time to focus.

Here are the 3 main things to keep in mind as the market shakes itself out:

We may not see the high of the market again this harvest season. Don’t dwell on the price you could have gotten on the previous weather rally. Readjust your price perspective- a supply/demand balance sheet is a helpful reference. You have to be realistic—especially when time is running out this season.  

There may be other opportunities to make money. Not big money, but every bit helps. For example, watch the carry in the market and store grain wisely. Research price offers from multiple buyers—the basis may be an opportunity to make several cents.

Know that there could be an unexpected bull move. Don’t count on it, but don’t rule it out either. A wet harvest or early freeze could alter the price outcome. This very well may be a bear market for the remainder of the season, but a strong reaction after a report is not a definite indicator.