Market News & Headlines >> Brock Consultant Katie Hancock's Blog: How Much Do I Sell?
Insights from Brock Associates Consultant Katie Hancock
Last week I shared the backbone of my marketing plan, which includes determining exact planted acres and crop share. The Brock Report covers selling recommendations that my clients and I follow closely. The recommendation is in a percentage, so the next step is to assign a yield to the acres. With the total planned bushels/unit of production, one can apply a percentage to the marketing plan.
One of my favorite tips I consider when I start making marketing plans for myself and others came from Kurt Barth, another Brock consultant. The question: How aggressive should I be on the yield when selling the crop at a percentage? Kurt’s answer was that you never want to be aggressive on both. In other words, if 30 bushels of beans is a low and conservative yield, one can be more aggressive in terms of the selling recommendations. For example, if 10% is 9,500 bushels, and one is conservative on yield, he may comfortably round to 10,000 bushels for clean marketing records. Of course, it will not be wise to round up if you’re selling in the later part of the crop in terms of overselling.
Most farmers have a general idea of expected yields. Other considerations that are helpful include crop insurance APH, county averages, land quality, weather conditions, and stand counts.
Flexibility is always important in your marketing plan, so you will need to adjust yields over the growing season. I like to be conservative on my yield, especially on wheat acres, or crops in which I’m not as familiar. Throughout the growing season and especially at harvest time, I will quickly make final adjustments to be sure I’ve covered yield intentions.
I’m looking forward to sharing some tips and learning new information at Brock Associates’ Commodity Classroom Aug 6-7 in Milwaukee. Hope you can join us.