Market News & Headlines >> Corn, Soy Crops Seen Up on Larger Yields
On average, the grain trade expects USDA to raise its forecast for U.S. corn production by nearly 2% in Thursday’s monthly Crop Production report and expects a similar increase in soybean production with favorable August rainfall thought to have boosted yields for both crops.
Trade estimates of U.S. corn production average 14.288 billion bushels in a range from 14.000-14.649 billion bushels, compared with USDA’s August estimate of 14.032 billion and last year’s 13.925-billion-bushel crop, according to a survey of 23 analysts by Reuters News Services.
Expectations for the U.S. corn yield average 170.74 bushels per acre in a range from 168.5-174.1 bushels compared with USDA’s August forecast of 167.4 bushels and last year’s 158.8-bushel yield.
Pre-USDA report estimates of U.S. soybean production average 3.883 billion bushels in a range from 3.760-4.035 billion, versus USDA’s August estimate of 3.816 billion bushels and last year’s crop of 3.289 billion.
The trade consensus is for a U.S. soybean yield of 46.29 bushels per acre, with estimates ranging from 45.4-48.0 bushels, compared with USDA’s August forecast of 45.4 bushels and last year’s 43.3-bushel yield.
One factor that could potentially hold the U.S. soybean yield down is disease problems caused by wet conditions in some areas. Sudden death syndrome problems has been widespread across Illinois and Missouri, but may not be fully reflected until the October Crop Production report.
An early frost/freeze forecast for late this week could still affect corn and soybean yields and traders will be watching weather conditions closely.