Market News & Headlines >> Corn Stocks Seen Down, Soybean, Wheat Up

USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report, due out Friday morning, is expected to peg Sept. 1 U.S. corn stocks down significantly from a year earlier, but show larger stocks of both soybeans and wheat. 

Trade estimates of Sept. 1 U.S. corn stocks average 2.010 billion bushels in a range from 1.953-2.099 billion compared with USDA’s August old-crop carryout estimate of 2.002 billion bushels and the 2016/17 carryout of 2.293 billion bushels, according to a survey of 23 analysts by Bloomberg news. At the average of trade estimates, Sept. 1 corn stocks would be down 12.3% from a year earlier. 

Pre-report expectations for Sept. 1 soybean stocks average 398 million bushels in a range from 378-430 million compared with USDA’s current old-crop carryout forecast of 395 million bushels and the 2016/17 soybean carryout of 302 million bushels.  At the average of trade estimates, Sept. 1 soybean stocks would be up 31.8% from a year earlier and would be the largest in 12 years. 

The grain trade, on average, expects USDA to peg Sept. 1 U.S. wheat stocks at 2.344 billion bushels, with estimates ranging from 2.155-2.440 billion bushels compared with the Sept. 1, 2017 stocks of 2.266 billion bushels. At the average of trade estimates, Sept. 1 wheat stocks would be up 3.4% versus a year earlier. 

The USDA Grain Stocks report will include a revision to U.S. 2017 soybean production if warranted. Trade estimates of the 2017 soybean crop average 4.389 billion bushels in a range from 4.376-4.412 billion compared with USDA’s current estimate of 4.392 billion. 

Last year, USDA lowered the 2016 soybean crop by 10.6 million bushels in the September Grain Stocks report, based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data.