Market News & Headlines >> Dec. 1 Hog Herd Seen Record Large
USDA is expected to report that the U.S. hog herd continued to expand during the September-November period when it releases its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday afternoon.
Trade estimates of the total Dec. 1 U.S. hog herd average 102.7% of a year earlier in a range from 102.3%-103.1%, according to the combined results of surveys by Reuters News Service and Bloomberg News. At the average of trade estimates, the Dec. 1 hog herd would be record large at 75.428 million head, 1.983 million head above a year earlier.
Pre-report estimates of the number of hogs kept for breeding purposes average 102.9% of a year earlier in a range from 102.4%-104.0%. At the average of trade estimates, the Dec. 1 breeding herd would be 6.359 million head, 180,000 larger than a year earlier and would be the largest for the date since 1998.
Trade expectations for the Dec. 1 market hog inventory average 102.6% in a range from 102.3%-103.1%. At the average of trade estimates, the market hog inventory would be a record large 69.065 million head, 1.799 million head above a year earlier.
On average, analysts surveyed pegged September-November farrowings at 101.7% of a year earlier and put the September-November pig crop at 102.3%, while estimating the number of pigs per litter at 100.7%.
Pre-report estimates of December-February farrowing intentions averaged 102.0% of a year earlier, while estimates of March-May intentions averaged 101.6%.
There is potential for USDA to make some revisions to past inventory numbers. September-November hog slaughter was lower than anticipated based on the September inventory report, which suggests USDA might possibly revise the Sept. 1 hog herd downward.