Market News & Headlines >> December Supply/Demand Report a Snoozer

Wednesday morning’s monthly USDA supply/demand report contained few changes and no big surprises for the grain and soybean markets. 

USDA left its U.S. carryout forecasts for soybeans and wheat futures unchanged from November at 465 million bushels and 911 million bushels respectively.

The unchanged soybean stocks forecast compared to trade carryout estimates that averaged 462 million bushels in a range from 445-478 million. There had been some thought USDA would raise the U.S. crush and/or exports slightly. Trade estimates of the wheat carryout averaged 918 million bushels in a range from 910-936 million. Pre-report expectations were for another cut to projected U.S. exports. 

USDA did raise its U.S. corn carryout forecast by 25 million bushels to 1.793 billion bushels as it cut projected exports by 50 million bushels due to a slow pace of sales and shipments, while raising projected corn-for-ethanol use by 25 million bushels based on the final 2016 ethanol blending mandate. The change to the projected corn carryout was largely anticipated, though, as trade carryout estimates averaged 1.768 billion bushels in a range from 1.640-1.810 billion compared with USDA’s November forecast of 1.760 billion bushels. 

USDA did have some negative news for the wheat market as it raised projected 2015-16 world wheat ending stocks to 229.86 million metric tons from a November forecast of 227.30 million tons. The new estimate topped trade expectations, which averaged 226.43 million tons in a range from 224.00-228.73 million. 

USDA made very minor adjustments to its world corn carryout forecast and cut its world soybean carryout projection by a modest 300,000 metric tons to 82.58 million, in line with trade expectations that averaged 82.64 million.