Market News & Headlines >> Grain Stocks Report Support Short Lived
USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report, which was released on Sept. 29 showed Sept. 1 stocks of corn and soybeans were below the levels expected by most in the grain trade, while wheat futures were larger than expected.
The positive reaction from the corn and soybean markets to the report was short-lived, though, with large new corn and soybean crops picking up and old-crop ending stocks for both crops still large by historical standards.
At 2.295 billion bushels, Sept. 1 corn stocks were 51 million bushels below the average or trade estimates in a Bloomberg survey of 32 analysts and 55 million below USDA’s previous forecast of the 2016/17 corn carryout. However, Sept. 1 corn stocks were still up nearly 21% from the year-earlier level of 1.898 billion bushels and were the largest since 1988.
Sept. 1 soybean stocks of 301 million bushels were 38 million bushels below the average of trade estimates and 44 million below USDA’s previous forecast for 2016/17 soybean ending stocks. However, stocks were up nearly 53% from a year earlier and were the largest since 2007.
Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stocks estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, USDA revised 2016 soybean production down 10.6 million bushels from its previous estimate.
USDA reported Sept. 1 wheat stocks of 2.253 billion bushels, 50 million bushels above the average of trade expectations, implying lower-than-expected first quarter 2017/18 wheat disappearance. However, wheat stocks were still down nearly 11.5% from a year earlier.