Market News & Headlines >> Larger Corn Carryout Expected

The grain trade is expecting USDA to raise both its 2015/16 and 2016/17 corn carryout estimates due to the higher-than-expected June 1 corn stocks and 2016 planted acreage reported on June 30. 

The 2015/16 U.S. soybean carryout is expected to fall again despite larger-than-expected June 1 stocks, while the 2016/17 carryout is seen rising due to the larger soybean plantings reported by USDA. 

Trade estimates of the 2015/16 U.S. corn carryout average 1.805 billion bushels, 97 million above USDA’s June estimate, in a range from 1.708-1.907 billion bushels. Pre-report estimates of the 2016/17 corn carryout average 2.205 billion bushels, 197 million above USDA’s June estimate in a range from 1.969-2.408 billion. 

Pre-report estimates of the 2015/16 U.S. soybean carryout average 352 million bushels, 18 million below USDA’s June estimate, in a range from 280-420 million bushels. Trade estimates of the 2016/17 soybean carryout average 287 million bushels, 27 million above USDA’s June estimate, in a range from 170-360 million. 

The trade is expecting a sizable increase in USDA’s 2016/17 wheat carryout forecast due to the larger-than-expected planted acreage reported in the Crop Acreage report.Trade estimates of the 2016/17 wheat carryout average 1.107 billion bushels in a range from 1.017-1.231 billion, compared with USDA’s June forecast of 1.050 billion bushels.