Market News & Headlines >> Little Change Seen In Wheat Crop Estimate

The grain trade is expecting Wednesday’s monthly Crop Production report to show little change in USDA’s forecast for the 2015 U.S. winter wheat crop, based on relative steady U.S. crop ratings.

However, trade forecasts for U.S. all-wheat production are higher than USDA’s May estimated, based on the good start to the spring wheat growing season.

Trade estimates of total winter wheat production average 1.474 billion bushels, just 2 million above USDA’s May  forecast, in a range from 1.445-1.515 billion bushels. Last year’s crop was just 1.378 billion bushels due to drought in the southern Plains.

On average, USDA is expected to peg the HRW wheat crop at 856 million bushels, 3 million above its May estimate and 118 million above last year’s crop of 738 million bushels. Trade estimates of HRW wheat production range from 820-885 million bushels.

Expectations for the SRW wheat crop average 414 million bushels in a range from 398-426 million compared with USDA’s May estimate of 416 million bushels and last year’s 455-million-bushel crop.  Pre-report estimates of White winter wheat production average 204 million bushels in a range from 198-225 million versus USDA’s May estimate of 203 million and last year’s production of 184 million bushels.

Estimates of all-wheat production average 2.110 billion bushels in a range from 2.050-2.191 billion bushels, compared with USDA’s May forecast of 2.087 billion. The average trade winter wheat and all-wheat production estimates imply a spring wheat crop of 636 million bushels versus the 615 million implied by USDA’s forecast and last year’s 648-million bushel crop.