Market News & Headlines >> Lower Corn Stocks Factored into Market

Friday’s USDA monthly supply/demand report contained slightly lower corn carryout estimates than most in the trade expected, but the cuts appeared to have already been factored into futures markets, with traders quickly switching their focus to Midwest weather forecasts. 

USDA cut its expected 2015/16 U.S. corn carryout to 1.708 billion bushels compared with trade estimates that averaged 1.772 billion bushels in a range from 1.728-1.820 billion, compared with USDA’s May forecast of 1.803 billion bushels, according to a survey of 20 analysts by Reuters News Service.  USDA raised its forecast for U.S. 2015/16 corn exports by 100 million bushels. 

USDA pegged the 2015-16 U.S. corn carryout at 2.008 billion bushels, down from a previous forecast of 2.153 billion and near the low end of trade estimates that averaged 2.125 billion bushels in a range from 1.973-2.441 billion. Projected 2016/17 corn exports were raised by 50 million bushels. U.S. production for 2016 was left unchanged based on March planting intentions and a weather-adjusted trend-line yield.

Friday’s report pegged the 2015/16 world corn carryout at 206.45 million metric tons down from 207.87 million in May, but in line with trade expectations that averaged 206.00 million tons in a range from 204.50-208.50 million. USDA cut its forecast for Brazil’s 2015/16 crop by 3.5 million metric tons to 77.5 million. USDA pegged the 2016/17 world corn carryout at 205.12 million tons, down from 207.04 million in May, but almost right on the average of trade expectations, which was 205.18 million. Trade estimates ranged from 204.00-208.00 million tons.