Market News & Headlines >> Lower U.S. Corn, Soybean Stocks Seen
The grain trade is expecting USDA to cut its estimates of U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 due to strong demand and downward revisions to production, but the wheat carryout is expected to rise due to slow exports.
Trade estimates of U.S. corn ending stocks average 1.927 billion bushels in a range from 1.710 to 2.081 billion bushels versus USDA’s December estimate of 1.998 billion bushels, according to a Reuters News Service survey of 21 analysts.
Expectations for a lower carryout are driven largely by expectations for a cut to crop production due to lower harvest acreage and/or lower-than-expected yields in the northwest part of the Corn Belt. Recent stronger export demand for U.S. corn and expansion in the livestock industry also have some looking for increases in USDA’s demand projections.
Pre-report expectations for U.S. soybean ending stocks average 393 million bushels in a range from 355 to 452 million, compared with USDA’s December estimate of 410 million. The expectations for a lower soybean carryout forecast are driven primarily by continued strong export sales and shipments, primarily due to strong Chinese demand.
Trade estimates of U.S. wheat ending stocks average 666 million bushels in a range from 636 to 699 million bushels compared with USDA’s December forecast of 654 million. Both export sales and export shipments are lagging the pace needed to meet USDA’s current export projection, fueling ideas that forecast will be cut.