Market News & Headlines >> Smaller U.S. Hog Supplies; Stable Sow Herd Seen

USDA is expected to peg the Dec. 1 U.S. hog herd nearly 3% below a year earlier but indicate the size of the sow herd stabilized during September-November following a strong of profitable months for producers when it releases its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday afternoon.

Trade estimates of the Dec. 1 U.S. hog herd average 97.2% of a year earlier in a range from 96.2%-99.1%, according to a Bloomberg News survey of seven analysts. At the average of trade estimates, the hog herd would total 74.649 million head, 2.173 million head smaller than a  year earlier, assuming no revisions to past numbers by USDA, however, some revisions are in fact likely.

Trade estimates of the supply of hogs kept for breeding purposes average 100.1% of a year earlier in a range from 99.6%-100.5%. At the average of trade estimates, the Dec. 1 U.S. sow herd would total 6.183 million head, up a marginal 7,000 head from a year earlier. September-November sow slaughter that ran several percentage points below a year earlier and made up declining percentage of the total slaughter suggests that sow herd liquidation ended during the fall quarter.

Pre-report expectations for the Dec. 1 market hog inventory average 97.0% of a year earlier in a range from 96.0-99.1%. At the average of trade estimates, the Dec. 1 market hog inventory would total 68.517 million head, 2.129 million below a year earlier, assuming no revisions to previous estimates.

On average, the September-November pig crop is expected to come in at 97.2% of a year earlier, with estimates ranging from  96.1%-99.4%. A modest recovery in quarterly breeding efficiency is anticipated with trade estimates of pigs per litter averaging 100.5% of a year earlier. Trade estimates of September-November farrowings average 96.8% compared with the Sep.-Nov. farrowing intentions estimate of 96.0% in USDA’s September inventory report.

Hog producers are expected to expand production very cautiously this winter and next spring. Estimates of December-February farrowing intentions average 100.8% of a year earlier, while estimate of March-May farrowing intentions average 100.3%.