Market News & Headlines >> Soybean Carryout Forecast Seen Rising
USDA is expected to raise its forecast of the U.S. soybean carryout for 2018/19 due to higher production, but cut the projected corn carryout due to lower expected production when it releases its monthly supply/demand update on Wednesday.
Pre-report trade estimates of this year’s U.S. soybean ending stocks average 828 million bushels in a range from 722 million to 1.0 billion, compared with USDA’s August forecast of 785 million bushels, according to a Bloomberg survey of 29 analysts. At 828 million bushels, the U.S. soybean carryout would easily be a record high.
USDA is expected to cut its 2017/18 soybean carryout estimate slightly. Trade estimates of the old-crop carryout average 426 million bushels, 4 million below USDA’s August forecast, in a range from 397-506 million bushels.
Trade expectations for 2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks average 1.614 billion bushels in a range from 1.210-1.785 billion, compared with USDA’s August projection of 1.684 billion bushels. At 1.614 billion bushels, the U.S. 2018/19 corn carryout would be down 20.4% from USDA’s August 2017/18 carryout forecast.
USDA is expected to make a small cut to its old-crop corn carryout estimate. Trade estimates of the old-crop carryout average 2.022 billion bushels in a range from 1.953-2.154 billion versus USDA’s August projection of 2.027 billion.
The grain trade is expecting USDA to raise its 2018/19 wheat ending stocks forecast amid continued slow export demand for U.S. wheat. Trade estimates of the 2018/19 wheat carryout average 949 million bushels in a range from 885 million to 1.077 billion compared with USDA’s August projection of 935 million bushels.