Market News & Headlines >> U.S. Corn, Wheat Stocks Seen Falling Significantly Next Year
The grain trade expects USDA to forecast that U.S. ending stocks of corn and wheat will decline significantly next year due to lower production when it releases its first monthly supply/demand estimates for 2018/19 on Thursday.
USDA is also expected to forecast a modest drop in the U.S. soybean carryout for 2018/19. The Department is expected to cut its 2017/18 corn and soybean carryout projections slightly, while raising old-crop wheat ending stocks marginally.
Pre-report expectations for 2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks average 1.631 billion bushels in a range from 1.411-1.907 billion bushel, according to a Bloomberg news survey of 33 analysts. The average of trade forecasts for next year’s carryout is 25.0% below this year’s average expected carryout. Trade estimates of the 2017/18 U.S. corn carryout average 2.176 billion bushels, just 6 million below USDA’s April estimate, in a range from 2.101-2.227 billion bushels.
Pre-report expectations of the 2018/19 U.S. soybean carryout average 533 million bushels in a range from 342-744 million bushels. That average estimate is 2.4% below this year’s expected carryout. Trade estimates for 2017/18 U.S. soybean ending stocks average 546 million bushels, 4 million below USDA’s April forecast, in a range from 495-618 million bushels.
The trade on average pegs the 2018/19 U.S. wheat carryout at 932 million bushels in a range from 780 million-1.070 billion. The average of estimates for next year’s carryout is 12.7% below the average expected 2017/18 carryout. Trade estimates of the 2017/18 U.S. wheat carryout average 1.068 billion bushels, 4 million above USDA’s April projection, in a range from 941 million-1.090 billion bushels.