Market News & Headlines >> U.S. Soybean Carryout Seen More than Doubling
USDA is expected to project that the U.S. soybean carryout will more than double next year when it releases its first monthly supply/demand estimates for the 2014-15 crop year on Friday morning.
The grain trade expects also expects the 2014-15 corn carryout to be up more than 350 million bushels from this year’s ending stocks, but sees U.S. wheat stocks slipping moderately amid winter wheat crop problems.
Trade estimates of the 2014-15 soybean carryout average 307 million bushels in a range from 200-464 million bushels, according to a survey of 23 analysts by Reuters News Service. At 307 million bushels, next year’s carryout would be up 129% from this year. Trade estimates of the 2013-14 soybean carryout average 134 million bushels, just 1 million below USDA’s April forecast, in a range from 125-174 million.
Expectations for a record large U.S. soybean crop due to record planting intentions are behind the higher carryout estimates.
Pre-report estimates of the 2014-15 corn carryout average 1.672 billion bushels in a range from 1.295-2.354 billion bushels. At 1.672 billion bushels, next year corn carryout would be up 341 million bushels or 25.6% from USDA’s most recent 2013-14 ending stocks estimate.
The trade, however, does expect USDA to lower 2013-14 U.S. corn ending stocks slightly further due to strong demand. Trade estimates of this year’s corn carryout average 1.314 billion bushels in a range from 1.231-1.435 billion.
On average, USDA is expected to forecast the 2014-15 U.S. wheat carryout 5.1% below its current old-crop carryout estimate of 583 million bushels. Trade estimates of next year’s wheat carryout average 553 million bushels in a range from 425-652 million bushels. The trade expects USDA to raise its old-crop carryout slightly, with pre-report estimates averaging 588 million bushels in a range from 570-633 million.