Market News & Headlines >> USDA Crop Numbers Shock Trade
USDA provided the grain trade with a big surprise on Wednesday by pegging 2015 U.S. corn and soybean production above most trade estimates on higher-than-expected yields.
USDA pegged U.S. corn production at 13.686 billion bushels versus trade estimates that averaged13.327 billion bushels in a range from 13.009-13.763 billion, according to a survey of 26 analysts taken by Reuters News. USDA’s first survey estimate of the crop was 186 million bushels larger than its previous forecast based on a weather-adjusted trend-line yield.
USDA forecast U.S. soybean production at 3.916 billion bushels, comfortably above trade estimates that averaged 3.724 billion bushels in a range from 3.570-3.806 billion. The first survey estimate of soybean production was 31 million bushels larger than USDA’s previous crop forecast.
The U.S. average corn yield was estimated by USDA at 168.8 bushels per acre, compared with trade estimates that averaged 164.5 bushels per acre in a range from 160.4-167.5 bushels. The yield was 2.0 bushels above USDA’s weather-adjusted trend yield, but 2.2 bushels below last year’s record high yield.
The U.S average soybean yield was surveyed at 46.9 bushels per acre, significantly above trade estimates that averaged 44.7 bushels in a range from 43.2-45.7 bushels. The survey yield estimate was 0.9 bushels above USDA’s weather-adjusted trend yield, but 0.9 bushels below last year’s record high yield.
USDA did cut harvested soybean acres after resurveying planted acreage in Missouri, Kansas and Arkansas due to planting delays there. USDA pegged U.S. harvested soybean acres at 83.50 million, down from the 84.449 million indicated by the June Crop Acreage report. That figure compared with trade estimates that averaged 83.271 million acres in a range from 82.400-84.400 million.
As expected, USDA did not change its estimate of harvested corn acres, leaving acreage at 81.101 million, versus trade estimates averaging 81.017 million, in a range from 80.200-82.177 million.