Market News & Headlines >> USDA Expected to Lower Corn Carryout Amid Strong Demand
USDA is expected to lower its estimate of the 2021/22 U.S. corn carryout in Thursday’s monthly Supply/Demand report due to strong demand and Brazilian crop problems.
The agency is not expected to make major changes to its U.S. soybean or wheat balance sheets in Thursday’s report.
Trade expectations for the U.S. 2021/22 corn carryout average roughly 1.417 billion bushels in a range from 1.207-1.507 billion bushels compared with USDA’s May forecast of 1.507 billion, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 25 analysts. Expectations for the old-crop 2020/21 carryout average roughly 1.203 billion bushels in a range from 1.107-1.277 billion bushels compared with USDA’s May forecast of 1.257 billion.
Strong Chinese bookings of U.S. corn for 2021/22 delivery, continued strong 2020/21 export shipments suggest that USDA could raise its old- and new-crop export forecasts at least slightly. Expectations for USDA to cut its forecast for Brazilian production and exports also suggest stronger potential for U.S. exports. USDA could also potentiall raise its forecast of corn-for-ethanol use slightly, based on recent production and gasoline demand data.
Pre-report estimates of the 2021/22 U.S. soybean carryout average roughly 143 million bushels in a range from 117-206 million compared with USDA’s May forecast of 140 million bushels. Expectations for the 2020/21 soybean carryout average 122 million bushels in a range from 110-150 million compared with USDA’s May estimate of 120 million bushels.
Pre-report expectation for the 2021/22 U.S. wheat carryout average roughly 781 million bushels in a range from 620-899 million compared with USDA’s May estimate of 774 million bushels. Expectations for the 2020/21 wheat carryout average roughly 868 million bushels in a range from 775-902 million compared with USDA’s May estimate of 872 million.