Market News & Headlines >> USDA Expected to Raise Corn, Soybean and Wheat Carryouts
USDA is expected to raise its estimate of the 2022/23 U.S. corn carryout due to sluggish exports and corn-for-ethanol use when it releases its monthly Supply/Demand report on Thursday. Pre-report expectations are also for USDA to raise its forecasts for 2022/23 U.S. soybean and wheat ending stocks slightly.
On average, the grain trade expects USDA to peg U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.314 billion bushels, 57 million above its December forecast of 1.257 billion bushels, with trade estimates ranging from 1.181-1.450 billion bushels, according to a Reuters News Service survey of 19 analysts.
U.S. corn export sales through Dec. 29 were about 47% below a year earlier, with USDA forecasting a drop of 16% in marketing year exports. U.S. corn-for-ethanol use for the first quarter of 2022/23 ran 4.6% below a year earlier, according to USDA, and use fell further behind last year in December based on ethanol production data.
Pre-report estimates of the U.S. soybean carryout average 236 million bushels, 16 million above USDA’s December projection, in a range from 205-289 million. U.S. soybean export sales are running ahead of pace to reach USDA’s current forecast, but are expected to drop off sharply starting in February amid competition from a record large crop in Brazil. Meanwhile, there are ideas USDA will revise 2022 U.S. soybean production upward slightly.
Trade expectations for the 2022/23 U.S. wheat ending stocks average 580 million bushels, up a modest 9 million bushels from USDA’s December estimate, in a narrow range from 556-601 million bushels. USDA could potentially make a small cut to its U.S. wheat export forecast based on continued slow U.S. wheat export sales.