Market News & Headlines >> USDA Expected to Raise U.S. Soy Carryout; Cut Corn Carryout

USDA is expected to raise its forecast for the 2021/22 U.S. soybean carryout on Tuesday due to larger production but cut its corn carryout forecast slightly due to strong demand when it releases its monthly Supply/Demand report. Little change is expected in USDA’s U.S. wheat carryout forecast.

Trade estimates of the 2021/22 U.S. soybean carryout average 362 million bushels, 42 million bushels or 13.1% above USDA’s October estimate, in a range from 310-449 million bushels, according to a Reuters News Service survey of 20 analysts.

The expectations for a larger soybean carryout appear to be driven mostly by expectations for USDA to raise its U.S. production estimate, with trade estimates of the 2021 U.S. soybean crop averaging 36 million bushels above USDA’s October forecast.

Pre-report estimates of the 2021/22 U.S. corn carryout average 1.480 billion bushels, 20 million below USDA’s October estimate, in a range from 1.355-1.576 billion bushels. With trade estimates of the 2021 corn crop averaging 31 million bushels above USDA’s October estimate, the lower carryout expectations appear to be driven by anticipation that USDA will raise its usage estimate.

Pre-report expectations for the 2021/22 U.S. wheat carryout average 581 million bushels, just one million above USDA’s October estimate in a narrow range from 565-601 million bushels. While U.S. wheat exports are running well behind pace to meet USDA’s marketing year forecast, USDA may hesitate to lower that estimate amid strong world demand.