Market News & Headlines >> USDA "Finds" Corn, Soybean Stocks
Friday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report held negative news for the corn and soybean markets as it “found” some old-crop supplies and pegged 2017-18 ending stocks for both crops above trade expectations.
The report also contained somewhat negative news for the wheat market as it pegged Sept. 1 wheat stocks toward the high end of trade expectations and above a year earlier.
USDA pegged Sept. 1 U.S. corn stocks at 2.140 billion bushels its previous 2017-18 ending stocks forecast of 2.002 billion bushels and trade estimates that averaged 2.010 billion bushels in a range from 1.953-2.099 billion. Sept. 1 corn stocks were still down from 2.293 billion bushels a year earlier.
The corn stocks number implies slower-than-expected old-crop corn usage and/or a larger 2017 crop than USDA currently estimates. Any cuts to old-crop usage would likely cause USDA to lower its 2018/19 usage projection as well.
Sept. 1 soybeans stocks were put by USDA at 438 million bushels, above its previous 2017-18 ending stocks estimate of 395 million and trade estimates that averaged 398 million in a range from 378-430 million bushels. In the stocks report, USDA revised its estimate of the 2017 soybean crop upward by 19 mil. bu., partially accounting for the larger Sept. 1 stocks. USDA may cut soybean residual use in its next monthly Supply/Demand report as well.
Sept. 1 wheat stocks came in a 2.378 million bushels, compared with trade estimates that averaged 2.344 billion in a range from 2.155-2.440 billion bushels. Sept. 1 stocks were up 112 million bushels from 2.266 billion a year earlier. The higher-than-expected stocks imply slower June-August wheat disappearance and USDA may raise its 2018/19 carryout forecast as a result. USDA could cut wheat feed/residual use.