Market News & Headlines >> USDA Hogs and Pigs Report Bullish Looking

Last week’s USDA Hogs and Pigs report had a bullish look to it as USDA’s estimates of the total U.S. hog herd and the market hog inventory were below the range of trade estimates, with the breeding herd at the low end of expectations.

Farrowing intentions for March-May and June-August were also lower than expected, pointing to prospects for further tightening of supplies into 2022.

USDA pegged all hogs and pigs at 98.2% of a year earlier compared with trade estimates that averaged 99.8% in a range from 98.5%-101.3%, according to a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts. USDA also pegged the market hog inventory at 98.2% of a year earlier against pre-report estimates that averaged 99.9% in a range from 98.4%-101.6%. USDA said the number of sows kept for breeding was 97.5% of a year earlier versus trade estimates that averaged 98.7% in a range from 97.4%-100.4%.

The breakdown of market hog weights suggests the tightest supplies of the second quarter relative to a year earlier are straight ahead of the market, with supplies of hogs in the heaviest two weight categories at 97.5% of a year earlier, while supplies of hogs weighing 120-179 lbs. and under 50 lbs. were at 98.8% and 98.7% respectively.

The December-February pig crop was pegged at just 98.6% of a year earlier compared with pre-report expectations that averaged 100.5% as December-February farrowings came in at only 99.1% of a year earlier compared with the farrowing intentions of 101.6% reported by USDA in its December inventory report and trade expectations averaging 100.5%. Pigs per litter was also down at 99.5% of a year earlier.

USDA pegged March-May farrowing intentions at only 97.5% of a year earlier vs. trade estimates that averaged 99.2% and put June-August farrowing intentions at just 95.7% versus trade estimates that averaged 100.5%.