Market News & Headlines >> USDA Projects Tight U.S. Soybean Carryout
USDA sent the soybean market into orbit on Tuesday morning, lowering U.S. production more than expected and pegging U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2020/21 at the lowest level in seven years.
USDA estimated U.S. soybean production at 4.170 billion bushels, 98 million bushels or 2.3% below its October estimate, lowering its estimate of the U.S. average soybean yield by 1.2 bushels per acre to 50.7 bushels. USDA’s crop estimate fell below all trade estimates, which averaged 4.251 billion bushels in a range from 4.189-4.320 billion.
As a result of the lower production and a small increase in seed use, USDA slashed its projection for U.S. 2020/21 soybean ending stocks by 100 million bushels or 34.5% to 190 million bushels, the lowest level since 2013/14, when the carryout was just 92 million bushels. USDA did not raise its U.S. export projection, as many had anticipated.
In conjunction with the tighter ending stocks estimate, USDA raised its forecast for the 2020/21 U.S. average on-farm price of soybeans by 60 cents per bushel to $10.40.