Market News & Headlines >> USDA Reports Yield Negative Markets

USDA’s reports issued today largely fell within industry expectations. Supplies of soybeans increased substantially after the large planted area was reported in the June 30 Acreage report, and wheat stocks were also revised up based on strong spring crop performance. Nonetheless, the market acted very negatively.

CORN: Production are projected down 75 million bushels based on the harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report.  The national average corn yield remained unchanged at 165.3 bushels per acre.  US new crop ending stocks were revised up to 1.801 billion bushels from 1.726 billion bushels from the June supply and demand report due to higher carry-in and lower feed and residual use.  US old crop also increased to 1.246 billion bushels from 1.146 billion bushels in June.  World new crop was up for July, from 182.65 MMT to 188.05 MMT, and world old crop was also lifted from 169.05 MMT to 173.42 MMT.  USDA projected the range for the season-average corn price to drop 20 cents on each end to range from $3.65 to $4.35 per bushel.

SOYBEANS: USDA forecasts a record 3.8 billion bushel production, up 165 million due to the surprisingly large planted area in the Acreage report.  Beginning stocks increased substantially from 125 million bushels to 140 million bushels.  Yield is unchanged at 45.2 bushels per acre.  US ending stocks are up 90 million bushels, projected at 415 million, which would be the highest since 2006/07.  Exports for 2014/15 were raised 50 million to 1.675 billion bushels, reflecting record US supplies and lower prices.  US season-average soybean price is projected at $9.50 to $11.50 per bushel, down 25 cents on both ends.

WHEAT: The market received bearish news as US ending stocks were revised up 86 million bushels and US production was up 50 million bushels largely due to a sharp 6% increase from last year forecast for the Hard Red Spring crop.  Durum is projected at 60 million bushels, down slightly from last year but still above average.  The winter crop production was lowered yet again down 1% from June and 11% from 2013 to 1.37 billion bushels.  Yield for HRW was also forecast slightly down on the month by 0.2 to 42.2 bushels per acre.  Projected season-average farm price range was lowered 40 cents to $6.00 on the low end and $7.20 on the high. 

Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 were raised 1.8 million tons as higher production numbers offset lower beginning stocks.  Continued favorable weather in the EU and Ukraine raised world production 3.5 MMT to 705.2 MMT, the second largest production on record if fulfilled.  Increased wheat feeding in the EU and higher food use across several countries raised global wheat consumption 0.9 MMT, but with supplies rising faster than use, world ending stocks were ultimately also raised 0.9 MMT.