Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Cutting Corn Carryout; Raising Soy, Wheat
USDA is expected to cut its estimate of the 2021/22 U.S. carryout slightly while raising its estimates of soybean and wheat ending stocks slightly when it releases its January supply/demand update on Wednesday morning.
Trade estimates of the 2021/22 U.S. corn carryout average 1.483 billion bushels in a range from 1.359-1.601 billion bushels compared with USDA’s December forecast of 1.493 billion, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 26 analysts.
Corn ending stocks are expected to fall despite slightly larger production. Ahead of USDA’s annual Crop Production Summary report, which will also be released on Wednesday morning, trade estimates of the 2021 U.S. corn crop average 15.078 billion bushels, 16 million above USDA’s November estimate, in a range from 14.941-15.190 billion bushels.
USDA could potentially raise its forecast for corn-for-ethanol use, based on higher use during the first quarter of the marketing year and could also potentially raise its export forecast slightly.
Pre-report estimates of the 2021/22 U.S. soybean carryout average 353 million bushels in a range from 305-411 million bushels compared with USDA’s December projection of 340 million bushels.
USDA is expected to raise its estimate of the 2021 U.S. soybean crop slightly as pre-report trade estimates of the crop average 4.434 billion bushels, 9 million above USDA’s November survey estimate in a range from 4.396-4.484 billion.
USDA could also lower its forecast for 2021/22 U.S. soybean exports further based on the current export sales pace.
Trade expectations for 2021/22 U.S. wheat ending stocks average 609 million bushels in a range from 580-648 million bushels compared with USDA’s December forecast of 598 million.
There is anticipation USDA will further reduce its forecast for 2021/22 U.S. wheat exports based on the slow pace of export sales and shipments to date and large production in Southern Hemisphere exporting nations, Australia and Argentina.