Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Cutting Corn, Soy Ending Stocks

USDA is expected to lower its estimates of 2021/22 U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks due to strong demand when it releases its monthly Supply/Demand report on Friday morning, while the wheat carryout is expected to edge a bit higher.

The report will offer USDA’s take on what the continued war in Ukraine may mean for U.S. and world supply/demand fundamentals.

On average, the grain trade expects USDA to peg the U.S. corn carryout at 1.415 billion bushels, down from its March forecast of 1.440 billion, with expectations ranging from 1.365-1.520 billion bushels, according to a Reuters News Service survey of 21 analysts.

USDA could raise projected U.S. corn exports due to the continued disruption of Ukrainian exports by the Russia-Ukraine war, but U.S. corn export sales are currently running behind the pace needed to reach USDA’s March export forecast.

Trade estimates of USDA’s U.S. soybean carryout forecast average 262 million bushels in a range from 196-305 million compared with USDA’s March forecast of 285 million bushels. USDA may raise its forecast for U.S. soybean exports based on the current pace of export sales and shipments and lower-than-expected South American production.

Pre-report expectations for USDA’s U.S. wheat ending stocks estimate average 656 million bushels in a range from 625-703 million compared with USDA’s March forecast of 653 million bushels. Continued sluggish export sales could lead USDA to revise its U.S. export forecast lower again. The halt to Ukraine’s wheat exports has so far not resulted in increased demand for U.S. wheat.