Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Cutting Corn, Soy Stocks
The grain trade is looking for USDA to cut corn and soybean carryout forecasts for both 2014-15 and the upcoming 2015-16 marketing year when it releases its monthly supply/demand update on Wednesday morning. In contrast, USDA’s U.S. wheat ending stocks forecast for 2015-16 is expected to rise for the third straight month.
Only a small change is expected in the old-crop corn carryout. Trade estimates of the 2014-15 U.S. corn carryout average 1.774 billion bushels, 5 million below USDA’s July projection, in a range from 1.735-1.816 billion.
Pre-report estimates of the 2015-16 corn carryout average 1.424 billion bushels, 175 million bushels or nearly 11% below USDA’s July forecast, in a range from 1.178-1.634 billion bushels. Lower production expectations are the primary reason for the lower stocks expectations.
USDA is seen making a modest cut to its old-crop soybean carryout due to a continued strong U.S. crush and strong exports. Trade expectations for the 2014-15 U.S. soybean carryout average 247 million bushels, in a range from 220-275 million, compared with USDA’s July projection of 255 million.
A sharp cut is expected in the 2015-16 U.S. soybean carryout due to lower-than-expected production. Trade estimates of next year’s carryout average 301 million bushels, 124 million bushels or 29.2% below USDA’s July forecast of 424 million, in a range from 210-402 million bushels.
On the other hand, USDA is expected to raise its U.S. wheat carryout projection due to strong spring wheat crop prospects and a weak start to the U.S. export campaign for 2015-16. Trade estimates of the U.S. wheat carryout average 858 million bushels, 16 million above USDA’s July forecast, in a range from 742-913 million bushels.