Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Cutting Grain, Soy Carryouts
USDA is expected to cut its estimates of U.S. corn, soybean, wheat and cotton ending stocks slightly in its latest monthly Supply/Demand report, which is due out on Thursday morning.
Pre-report trade expectations for USDA’s 2020-21 U.S. corn carryout average 1.691 billion bushels, 11 million below USDA’s November estimate, in a range from 1.550-1.775 billion bushels, according to a Reuters News Service survey of 23 analysts.
Continued strong export demand is likely driving expectations for a further cut to the corn carryout, with U.S. export sales running well ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA’s corn export forecast.
Pre-report trade estimates of USDA’s U.S. soybean carryout forecast average 168 million bushels, 22 million below its November forecast, with estimates ranging from 120-190 million bushels, according to the Reuters survey.
Strong demand appears to be driving expectations for a further cut to the expected soybean carryout as well. U.S. soybean export sales and shipments are well ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA’s November export forecast and U.S. soybean crushings remain strong.
Trade expectations for USDA’s U.S. wheat ending stocks estimate average 874 million bushels, a modest 3 million below USDA's November estimate, in a range from 850-900 million bushels.
Trade estimates of 2020 U.S. cotton ending stocks average 6.89 million bales in a range from 6.60-7.30 million, compared with USDA's November estimate of 7.20 million, according to a Bloomberg survey. Traders will be watching for a possible cut to U.S. production following the numerous storms that hit Delta/Southeast cotton areas this fall. USDA could raise its forecast for U.S. cotton exports, based on the current pace of sales and shipments.