Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Cutting U.S. Corn Carryout
The grain trade is anticipating a cut to USDA’s U.S. corn carryout estimate when the department releases its monthly supply/demand update on Thursday, while little change is expected in soybean or wheat ending stocks.
The U.S. corn carryout is expected to fall due to continued strong export demand for U.S. corn amid the drought in Argentina. Trade estimates of 2017-18 U.S. corn ending stocks average 2.313 billion bushels, 39 million below USDA’s February estimate, in a range from 2.222-2.352 billion, according to survey of 27 analysts by Bloomberg news.
Trade expectations for the U.S. soybean carryout average 529 million bushels, just 1 million below USDA’s February forecast, in a range from 490-590 million. USDA could lower its marketing year export forecast further based on the continued slow pace of U.S. soybean export sales to date, but declining Argentine crop prospects may cause it to be cautious about further cuts.
For wheat ending stocks, trade estimates average 1.007 billion bushels, just 2 million below USDA’s February forecast, in a range from 970 million-1.035 billion bushels. The trade consensus is for a small cut to stocks, even though U.S. wheat exports are running behind pace to meet USDA’s current marketing year export forecast.