Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Lowering Crop Estimates
The grain trade expects USDA to lower its estimates of this year’s U.S. corn and soybean crops in its August Crop Production report, due out Monday morning at 11:00 a.m. CT.
While USDA crop reports are always significant events for the corn and soybean markets, this one is more highly anticipated than most amid a high degree of uncertainty about planted acreage and yield potential following severe Midwest planting delays this spring.
Trade estimates of U.S. corn production average 13.146 billion bushels in a range from 12.445-13.550 billion compared with USDA’s July estimate of 13.875 billion bushels and last year’s 14.420-billion-bushel crop, according to a Bloomberg survey of 25 analysts.
Pre-report expectations for U.S. soybean production average 3.786 billion bushels in a range from 3.474-3.987 billion compared with USDA’s July projection of 3.845 billion bushels and last year’s 4.544 billion bushel crop.
The crop report is likely to contain adjustments to planted acreage after USDA resurveyed acreage in 14 states in July due to planting delays and flooding.
The trade on average expects USDA to peg planted corn area at 87.7 million acres, with estimates ranging from 81.6-92.8 million compared with USDA’s current estimate of 91.7 million acres. Pre-report estimates of soybean planted area average 80.9 million acres in a range from 77.8-83.5 million compared with USDA’s current estimate of 80.0 million.
Trade estimates of the U.S. corn yield average 164.9 bushels per acre in a range from 161-167.4 bushels compared with USDA’s current estimate of 166.0 bushels. Expectations for the U.S. soybean yield average 47.4 bushels per acre in a range from 45.0-48.5 bushels compared with USDA’s current estimate of 48.5 bushels.