Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Raising Corn, Soy Carryout Estimates
USDA is expected raise its estimates of U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks for both 2020/21 and 2021/22 in Friday morning’s monthly Supply/Demand report due to larger 2021 production and reduced demand. However, the agency is expected to cut its 2021/22 U.S. wheat carryout forecast further.
Pre-report trade estimates of the 2021/22 U.S. corn carryout average 1.341 billion bushels in a range from 1.018-1.610 billion compared with USDA’s August forecast of 1.242 billion bushels according to a Bloomberg News survey of 27 analysts. Expectations for the 2020/21 carryout average 1.159 billion bushels in a range from 1.091-1.224 billion compared with USDA’s August estimate of 1.117 billion.
USDA is expected to raise its 2021 U.S. corn production estimate and we suspect it could lower 2020/21 corn-for-ethanol use and exports slightly based on ethanol production and export shipments data.
Pre-report trade estimates of the U.S. soybean carryout for 2021/22 average 182 million bushels in a range from 132-260 million bushels compared with USDA’s August forecast of 155 million bushels. Expectations for the 2020/21 soybean carryout average 168 million bushels, 8 million above USDA’s August estimate in a range from 140-199 million bushels.
USDA is generally expected to raise its forecast of 2021 U.S. soybean production modestly and cut its old-crop usage estimates slightly.
Trade estimates of the 2021/22 U.S. wheat carryout average 613 million bushels in a range from 555-652 million bushels compared with USDA’s August forecast of 627 million bushels.