Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Raising Corn, Soy Carryouts
USDA is expected to revise its estimates of U.S. 2017/18 corn and soybean ending stocks upward moderately based on the March 1 stocks numbers for those crops when it releases its monthly supply/demand update on Tuesday morning.
Trade estimates of this year’s U.S. corn carryout average 2.189 billion bushels in a range from 2.067-2.265 billion compared with USDA’s March estimate of 2.127 billion bushels. USDA is expected to cut its projection for corn feed/residual use after March 1 corn stocks came in at 8.888 billion bushels, above the high end of the range of trade expectations and 266 million above a year earlier.
Pre-report estimates of the 2017-18 U.S. soybean carryout average 574 million bushels in a range from 545-625 million compared with USDA’s March estimate of 555 million bushels. March 1 soybean stocks of 2.107 billion bushels point toward a larger carryout, but USDA may be cautious about raising ending stocks due to the short crop in Argentina and a recent pick-up in demand for U.S. soybeans.
However, year-to-date U.S. soybean export sales and shipments are lagging the pace needed to reach USDA’s current export forecast and U.S. export prospects are clouded by the potential for China to impose a 25% import duty on U.S. soybeans if the U.S. goes ahead with import duties against a variety of Chinese products.
USDA is generally not expected to change its estimate of the 2017/17 U.S. wheat carryout as March 1 wheat stocks of 1.494 billion bushels were just 6 million above the average of trade estimates. Trade estimates of the carryout average 1.036 billion bushels, just 2 million above USDA’s March estimate, in a range from 989-1.060 billion.