Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Raising Soybean Carryout
A sluggish export pace has the grain trade is expecting USDA to raise its U.S. soybean carryout forecast in Friday’s monthly supply/demand update.
Trade estimates of the 2017/18 U.S. soybean carryout average 479 million bushels, 34 million bushels above USDA’s December projection of 445 million bushels, in a range from 442-595 million bushels, according to a survey of 30 analysts by Bloomberg news.
With trade estimates of 2017 soybean production averaging 5 million bushels above USDA’s November estimate, the average of trade carryout estimates implies a cut of 29 million bushels to estimated usage. U.S. soybean export sales and shipments have continued to lag USDA’s projected pace.
The trade consensus is that there will be no change in USDA’s corn carryout forecast on Friday. Trade estimates of the U.S. 2017/18 corn carryout average 2.437 billion bushels, equaling USDA’s December forecast, with estimates ranging from 2.263-2.550 billion bushels.
USDA’s wheat carryout forecast is not expected to change much. Trade estimates of the 2017/18 U.S. wheat carryout average 959 million bushels, just 1 million below USDA’s December estimate, in a range from 855-987 million bushels.