Market News & Headlines >> USDA Seen Raising U.S. Corn, Wheat Carryouts
The grain trade is expecting USDA to raise its estimates of U.S. corn and wheat ending stocks for 2015-16 slightly and trim its estimate of the soybean carryout modestly when it releases its monthly supply/demand report on Tuesday morning at 11:00 a.m. CT.
Trade estimates of the U.S. corn carryout average 1.845 billion bushels, 8 million above USDA’s March forecast, in a range from 1.787-1.902 billion bushels. March 1 corn stocks of 7.808 billion bushels were closely in line with trade expectations, but were the second largest in history behind 1987, when March 1 stocks were 8.248 billion bushels.
Pre-report estimates of the U.S. wheat carryout average 977 million bushels, 11 million above USDA’s March forecast, in a range from 961-996 million bushels. A larger carryout is expected based on the March 1 wheat stocks estimate, which came in toward the high end of trade expectations at 1.372 billion bushels, up 232 million bushels from a year earlier. USDA could lower projected U.S. wheat exports for 2015-16 further based on continued slow sales and shipments.
On average, the trade is expecting a U.S. soybean carryout of 454 million bushels, 6 million below USDA’s March forecast, with pre-report estimates ranging from 430-480 million bushels. March 1 soybean stocks of 1.531 billion bushels were toward the low end of trade expectations, although they were the largest in 9 years, up 204 million from a year earlier.