Market News & Headlines >> Demand Estimates Focus in USDA Report
The monthly Supply/Demand report that USDA is set to release on Tuesday morning, which will contain the agency’s first monthly forecasts for the upcoming 2020/21 marketing year, should be one of the most widely watched ever amid the demand uncertainty created by the coronavirus pandemic.
USDA’s demand estimates will be the main focus for the corn and soybean markets as the agency’s corn and soybean crop projections should be no surprise to traders. USDA should use its March planting intentions and weather adjusted trend-line yields to calculation the production numbers. There would appear to be no reason, so far, for USDA to adjust the trend-line yield projections of 178.5 bushels per acre for corn and 49.8 bushels for soybeans it used at its February Outlook Forum.
USDA is expected to raise its 2019/20 carryout estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat and is expected to forecast a huge jump in the U.S. corn carryout for 2020/21 due to weakened demand and potential for record crop production. However, expectations are for USDA to project that U.S. soybean and wheat ending stocks will decline next year.
Trade estimates of the 2019/20 U.S. corn carryout average 2.278 billion bushels in a range from 2.109-2.545 billion compared with USDA’s April projection of 2.092 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey of 25 analysts. Pre-report expectations for 2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks average 3.410 billion bushels in a range from 2.665-3.900 billion, compared with USDA’s Outlook Forum forecast of 2.637 billion bushels.
Pre-report trade estimates of the 2019/20 U.S. soybean carryout average 495 mil. bushels in a range from 430-549 million, compared with USDA’s April forecast of 480 million. Trade expectations for the 2020/21 U.S. soybean carryout average 432 million bushels in a range from 300-683 million.