Market News & Headlines >> El Nino Ahead, but Not Imminent

As we have mentioned before to subscribers, consensus is building that neutral El Nino (ENSO) conditions, which have been in place for almost two full years, are likely to prevail through spring, after which the odds build for an El Nino. Following a study of the six extended neutral periods (more than 12 months) back to 1950, Drew Lerner of World Weather noted that none of them resulted in a cool water episode or La Nina. They were all followed by an El Nino.

Current conditions include a pool of warm water in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean that has begun to shift east of the International Dateline, but cool water in the eastern Pacific. Lerner believes El Nino may, in fact, develop but will be slower to develop and less intense than some forecasts currently call for. Depending when it develops, it may mean poor rainfall patterns in eastern Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, parts of the Philippines and southern Asia during Northern Hemisphere summer.