Market News & Headlines >> Few Changes Seen in U.S. Supply/Demand Numbers

USDA is not expected to make any major changes to its balance sheets for corn, wheat or soybeans when it releases its monthly Supply/Demand report on Tuesday. 

Trade estimates of U.S. corn ending stocks for 2018/19 average 1.744 billion bushels, up modestly from USDA’s November estimate of 1.736 billion bushels, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 27 analysts. 

Slower-than-expected corn-for-ethanol use is one factor pointing to the possibility of a slightly higher carryout. The monthly Grain Crushings report released by USDA on Dec. 3 showed October U.S. use of corn for fuel ethanol production was 1.9% below a year earlier. 

Pre-report estimates of the U.S. soybean carryout average 940 million bushels, 15 million below USDA’s November estimate in a range from 802 million-1.033 billion.  

The carryout is expected to be lowered due to stronger exports. Trade estimates of U.S. 2018-19 soybean exports average 1.923 billion bushels, versus USDA’s November forecast of 1.900 billion, according to estimates from 22 analysts. Stronger-than-expected U.S. soybean crushings for September and October are another reason for a possible cut to projected ending stocks. The October soybean crush was about 4.0% above a year earlier. 

Trade expectations for the U.S. wheat carryout average 965 million bushels in a range from 844 million to 1.025 billion compared with USDA’s November estimate of 949 million bushels. There continue to be expectations that USDA could lower its estimate of U.S. wheat exports. Wheat sales and shipments remain well behind pace to reach that forecast despite a recent pick-up in demand.