Market News & Headlines >> Hogs and Pigs not Bullish

Well, it wasn’t as bullish as expected. That makes it bearish, even though it confirms the trends that were widely expected. Total inventories are down 3% from a year ago (trade estimate 5.5%) and the lowest since 2007; kept for breeding even with last year (trade down a fraction of a percent); kept for market, 96% (trade 94%).

Dec-Feb farrowings at +2% outstripped the trade’s expected 100%. The pig crop, at down 3% also fell short of the trade’s expected 3.5% drop. Pigs saved per litter came in a 9.53, a 5.4% reduction from the 10.08 seen a year ago, most likely due to porcine epidemic diarrhea virus.

Signs of expected expansion also were evident in March-May farrowing intentions, up 2.4% and June-August intentions, up 2%. As the warmer weather sets in, new cases of PED may slack off and pig losses may be less but keep in mind that there may still be some reductions in pigs saved per litter and in actual numbers of pigs.