Market News & Headlines >> Minor Corn, Soy Crop Adjustments Expected
On average, the U.S. grain trade expects USDA to make only marginal changes to its estimates of 2017 U.S. corn and soybean production when it releases its October Crop Production report on Thursday.
Trade expectations for production have gone up over the past month due to stronger-than-expected yields and the potential for upward revisions to USDA’s estimates of planted/harvested acreage.
Trade expectations for U.S. corn production average 14.171 billion bushels, just 13 million bushels below USDA’s September crop estimate, in a range from 13.836-14.450 billion bushels, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 29 analysts.
Pre-report estimates of U.S. soybean production average 4.437 billion bushels, a mere 6 million bushels above USDA’s September estimate, in a range from 4.321-4.500 billion bushels.
On average, the trade sees the U.S. corn yield at 169.8 bushels per acre, compared with USDA’s September estimate of 169.9 bushels, with pre-report estimates ranging from 167.0-172.0 bushels. Trade estimates of the U.S. soybean yield average 49.9 bushels per acre, unchanged from USDA’s September estimate, in a range from 48.5-52.5 bushels.
The average of trade estimates for harvested corn area is 83.5 million acres, unchanged from USDA’s September estimate in a range from 82.9-84.0 million acres. Trade estimates of harvested soybean area average 89.0 million acres in a range from 88.5-89.8 million compared with USDA’s current estimate of 88.7 million acres. Higher soybean acreage is suggested by Farm Service Agency certified program acreage totals. USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service normally reconciles its acreage estimates with FSA data in October. A further acreage revision is possible in January.