Market News & Headlines >> Only Minor Changes Expected in U.S. Supply/Demand Forecasts
USDA is expected to make only minor changes to its U.S. corn, soybean and wheat balance sheets when it releases its February Supply/Demand report on Thursday morning.
Trade estimates of the 2023/2024 U.S. corn carryout average 2.149 billion bushels in a range from 2.065-2.280 billion compared with USDA’s January forecast of 2.162 billion bushels. There are ideas USDA could raise its forecast for U.S. corn exports slightly as trade estimates of exports average about 2.108 billion bushels compared with USDA’s current forecast of 2.100 billion.
However, U.S. corn export sales are running behind the seasonal pace needed to meet USDA’s current forecast, so any increase in projected exports will likely depend on USDA lowering its forecast for South American production and exports.
Pre-report estimates of the U.S. soybean carryout average roughly 285 million bushels in a range from 245-310 million bushels compared with USDA’s January projection of 280 million bushels.
USDA could potentially lower its forecast for U.S. soybean exports amid stiff competition from South America. Trade estimates of U.S. soybean exports average about 1.742 billion bushels compared with USDA’s January forecast of 1.755 billion. However, USDA could also raise the U.S. soybean crush slightly.
Pre-report expectations for the U.S. wheat carryout average less than 1 million bushels below USDA’s January forecast of 648 million bushels and range from 625-673 million bushels.