Market News & Headlines >> Record U.S. Corn Yield; Strong Demand

USDA has pegged the U.S. 2018 corn crop above most trade estimates on a record high U.S. yield, but still sees a significant drop in U.S. ending stocks after raising its demand forecasts significantly, offsetting much of the larger expected production. 

USDA’s first survey estimate of the U.S. corn crop came in at 14.586 billion bushels, up 356 million from its July forecast of 14.230 billion bushels, which was based on a weather-adjusted trend-line yield and the June crop acreage estimate. The Aug. 10 Crop Production report pegged the U.S. average corn yield at a record 178.4 bushels per acre, up from the July trend-line estimate of 174.0 bushels and last year’s 176.6 bushels. 

However, in its monthly supply/demand report, USDA raised its projection of overall U.S. corn usage for 2018/19 by 225 million bushels, boosting expected U.S. exports by 125 million bushels and feed use by 100 million bushels. 

As a result, USDA’s 2018/19 corn ending stocks forecast rose by 132 million bushels to 1.684 billion. That new-crop carryout estimate still represents a drop of 343 million bushels or 16.9% from this year’s expected 2.027-billion-bushel carryout. 

USDA did lower its forecast range for the 2018/19 on-farm average price of corn to $3.10-$4.10 per bushel from $3.30-$4.30 in July.