Market News & Headlines >> USDA Cuts Corn, Soy Stocks Projections

USDA cut its old-crop U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks estimates more than expected in Friday’s monthly supply/demand update, but its 2015-16 carryout estimates were above most expectations due to unchanged 2015 yield forecasts.

USDA pegged the 2014-15 U.S. corn carryout at 1.779 billion bushels, down 97 million from its June estimate, versus trade estimates that averaged 1.809 billion bushels in a range from 1.726-1.880 billion, according to a survey of 22 analysts by Dow Jones Newswires. USDA put the 2015-16 carryout at 1.599 billion bushels down 172 million from its June estimate but toward the high end of pre-report estimates that averaged 1.508 billion bushels in a range from 1.040-1.910 billion bushels.

USDA put the 2014-15 U.S. soybean carryout at 255 million bushels, down 75 million from its June estimate and below pre-report estimates that averaged 292 million bushels in a range from 265-330 million. USDA’s 2015-16 U.S. soybean carryout projection of 425 million bushels was down 50 million from its June forecast, but was at the high end of trade estimates that averaged 378 million bushels, in a range from 127-450 million bushels.

USDA raised its old-crop corn and soybean usage estimates based on the June 1 grain stocks totals reported in the quarterly Grain Stocks report on June 30, which implied higher-than-expected usage. However, the agency cut its 2015-16 total usage estimate for corn and raised next year’s projected soybean use by only 10 million bushels.

USDA left its 2015 U.S. corn yield forecast at 166.8 bushels per acre, its adjusted trend-line yield, but cut expected production by 100 million bushels to account for lower planted acreage reported in the Crop Acreage report on June 30.

The 2015 U.S. soybean yield was also unchanged at 46.0 bushels per acre, but USDA raised expected production by 35 million bushels due to the higher planted soybean acreage reported in the Crop Acreage report. USDA, however, is resurveying soybean acreage in Missouri, Kansas and Arkansas due to planting delays there and may lower plantings in its August Crop Report.