Market News & Headlines >> USDA Expected to Raise Grain Stocks Estimates
USDA is expected to raise its estimates of 2018/19 U.S. corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks in the monthly supply/demand update due out on Friday morning and forecast further increases in corn and soybeans stocks during 2019/20. Friday’s report will contain USDA’s first monthly estimates of 2019/20 supply/demand.
Pre-report trade estimates of the 2018/19 U.S. corn carryout average 2.061 billion in a range from 1.985-2.216 billion bushels compared with USDA’s April forecast of 2.035 billion, while expectations for the 2019/20 carryout average 2.166 billion bushels in a wide range from 1.694-2.506 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey of 28 analysts.
Trade expectations for 2018/19 U.S. soybean ending stocks average 926 million bushels in a range from 880 million to 1.038 billion, compared with USDA’s April forecast of 895 million, while expectations for 2019/20 U.S. soybean ending stocks average 945 million bushels in a wide range from 786 million to 1.524 billion bushels.
Trade estimates of 2018/19 U.S. wheat ending stocks average 1.096 billion bushels in a range from 1.038-1.187 billion bushels compared with USDA’s April forecast of 1.087 billion. Pre-report expectations for the 2019/20 U.S. wheat carryout average 1.051 billion bushels in a range from 881 million to 1.173 billion.
USDA is expected to use trend-line yields and the March 1 planting intentions to calculate its 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production estimates, leaving the trade to focus on its initial demand projections. However, the agency has adjusted its corn yield forecast lower in May for slow planting progress at times in the past, the last time being in 2013, which is also the last time early May planting progress was lower than this year.