Market News & Headlines >> USDA Expected to Slash 2023/24 Soybean Carryout Estimate
Following the big corn and soybean acreage surprises in USDA’s June 30 Crop Acreage report, the grain trade is expecting Wednesday’s monthly Supply/Demand report to show only a marginal increase in USDA’s 2023/24 corn carryout forecast but a big cut in the agency’s 2023/24 soybean carryout projection.
Trade expectations for USDA’s corn carryout estimate average 2.260 billion bushels in a range from 1.951-2.652 billion bushels compared with USDA’s June forecast of 2.257 billion. Lower corn yields are expected to offset the increase in planted/harvested acreage.
Even though corn planted acres of 94.1 million in the Crop Acreage report were up 2.1 million from the March planting intentions, trade crop expectations average 15.234 billion bushels, 31 million bushels below USDA’s June crop projection. Trade estimates of the U.S. corn yield average 176.6 bushels per acre in a range from 172.4-180.0 bushels compared with USDA’s June forecast of 181.5 bushels.
With USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report showing smaller-than-expected June 1 corn stocks, the trade expects a smaller 2022/23 carryout. Trade estimates of this year’s carryout average 1.420 billion bushels in a range from 1.315-1.502 billion compared with USDA’s June forecast of 1.452 billion.
Trade expectations for the 2023/24 U.S. soybean carryout average 199 million bushels nearly 29% below USDA’s June projection of 350 million bushels, in a range from 128-280 million. The Crop Acreage report pegged U.S. soybean plantings 4.0 million acres below the March planting intentions spurring expectations for a significant reduction in the projected U.S. crop.
Trade expectations for 2023 U.S. soybean production average 4.253 billion bushels in a range from 4.176-4.314 billion compared with USDA’s June projection of 4.510 billion bushels. Pre-report expectations for the U.S. soybean yield average 51.4 bushels per acre in a range from 50.5-52.0 bushels versus USDA’s June estimate of 52.0 bushels.
The trade sees USDA’s estimate of the 2022/23 U.S. soybean carryout rising marginally. Trade estimates of this year’s carryout average 232 million bushels in a range from 205-270 million compared with USDA’s June forecast of 230 million bushels.